Following the “smart gridâ€, another hot word in the power equipment industry, “Ultra High Voltage,†has frequently entered the eyes of investors.
State Grid Corporation of China stated that the UHV transmission project has been listed in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". According to the plan, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the state will invest more than 500 billion yuan to build a "three vertical and three horizontal" UHV AC backbone grid and 11 UHV HVDC transmission projects, of which the exchange of UHV investment accounts for about 2 / 3.
Shenyin Wanguo predicts that among the 500 billion yuan in investment, it is expected that the investment in AC lines will reach 300 billion yuan, and UHV DC line investment will reach 200 billion yuan.
“We used to think that the development of UHV will encounter various problems. Now from the official standpoint, the development of UHV is a relatively certain event. The growth in this area in the next few years is relatively certain.†Shanghai Tongyi Fu Ming Investment Management Co., Ltd., director of investment Chen Ming recently accepted the "Financial Business" reporter from China Business News.
So, for investors, how do you grasp the investment opportunities on this topic?
UHV rises as a national strategy It is understood that the so-called UHV power grid is a transmission network that delivers AC 1000 kV and DC voltages of plus or minus 800 kilovolts and can carry current over long distances, large capacity, and low losses.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†plan just released has clearly proposed adapting to the large-scale cross-regional transmission and new energy generation grid connection requirements, accelerating the construction of a modern power grid system, further expanding the scale of West-to-East power transmission, improving the regional backbone power grid, and developing the UHV Such as large capacity, high efficiency, long-distance advanced transmission technology.
Analysts believe that although there have been many controversies regarding UHV construction in the academic community, this measure not only signals that UHV construction has risen to a national strategy, but also fully clarified the UHV construction expectation, undoubtedly giving UTV investment opportunities. The capital market has eaten a "centering pill."
Yin Jianhui, an analyst at Nanjing Securities, believes: “This affirmed UHV construction at the national level and dispelled the doubts surrounding UHV construction. In the next few years, UHV will develop rapidly under the promotion of the national grid, and relevant equipment manufacturers will be significant. Benefit."
“China’s power grid construction does require UHV. In fact, China’s power generation has always been oversupply, but in some areas, electricity is lacking all year round. The main reason is that the transmission capacity of the grid cannot keep up, and developing the UHV can solve this problem.†Zhong Hang Securities researcher Pan Hangxi told reporters.
It is understood that the main feature of the smart grid is that it can connect different levels of power plants and can solve cross-regional issues. UHV technology, on the other hand, is mainly capable of connecting large capacity power plants with large capacity. Due to the huge transmission capacity, it can solve the congestion problem.
In fact, Japan’s recent nuclear leakage has also given a boost to the development of the UHV. Founder Securities analyst Li Xin believes that in the shadow of Japan’s nuclear leakage, if the development of nuclear power slows down, from the perspective of the new energy industry as a whole, wind power and other new energy sources are expected to accelerate development and complement it. While the new energy base is far away from the load center, the UHV power grid is urgently needed to solve the problem of long-distance transportation and consumption.
Although the prospects for development are promising, what are the main risk factors for investing in this sector?
"The main issue is the progress of the development. Although in the next five years, the State Grid Corporation will build more than one line. However, it has not been approved yet, and it is difficult to grasp the timing. When it comes to specific listed companies, when they can really make a profit, they also compare. It's difficult to confirm," said Pan Hangxi.
Leading companies benefit the most For the progress of UHV work in 2011, the State Grid Corporation of China stated clearly that it is necessary to ensure that the Huainan (Tainan)-Shanghai UHV AC project is approved in the first quarter, and strives for Ximeng-Nanjing, Huainan (Nanjing)-Shanghai UHV exchanges. In the first half of the year, the project approved the UHV AC project in Mengxi-Changsha, Jingbian-Lianyungang (601008) and Xiluodu-Zhexi, Hami-Henan UHVDC projects during the year.
Market participants believe that if this plan can be successfully implemented, it means that the construction of seven lines will bring a huge wave of equipment investment. According to Shen Wan, only the two lines of Xiluodu-Zhexi and Hami-Henan UHV DC projects will invest 19.4 billion yuan and 23 billion yuan respectively. If all 7 lines are opened, the investment will be huge. .
Hu Wenzhou, an analyst at BOC International, believes that the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" is the first phase of China's grid investment peak period, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 25%. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be the second phase of China's power grid investment. Unlike the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", UHV will become the "engine" of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" grid investment, leading companies will benefit the most.
Wang Jing, a researcher at Hongyuan Securities, said: "The second quarter will be the timing for the UHV DC line to pass the review and announcement, which is expected to significantly boost the performance of the sector. We recommend that we focus on companies with resilient performance."
It is understood that investment in UHV investment, equipment investment accounted for about 45%, including transformers (including reactors) accounted for about 30% of equipment investment, GIS (referring to sulfur hexafluoride closed type combination of electrical appliances, internationally known as "gas insulation Metal-enclosed switchgears" account for about 25%, and transformers account for about 10%.
Shenyin Wanguo believes that UHV AC transformers (including reactors) investment will reach 42 billion yuan, GIS investment will reach 35 billion yuan, and investment in transformers will reach 14 billion yuan. .
“I think there are mainly three entry points for finding investment opportunities. One is the absolute yield obtained in the UHV construction, the second is the relative rate of return, and the other is the level of valuation.†Pan Hangyi believes that besides investors are familiar with the leading In addition to the company, there are many companies that produce iron towers, conductive lines, and gadgets that can pay due attention.
Manufacturers such as transformers and GIS can focus on understanding that the main products and production capacity of integrated UHV AC and DC lines can be found that transformers, GIS and converter valves in the UHV primary equipment industry in China have the highest technical barriers and investment opportunities. The most noteworthy.
Among them, in UHV transformers, in the Jindongnan-Jingmen UHV AC pilot demonstration project, TBEA and Tianwei Baoji won bids for 6 and 4 UHV transformers respectively, and China Xideng won 11 reactors. The company already has UHV transformer production capabilities.
Therefore, Shenyin Wanguo predicts that in the “Twelfth Five Year†UHV construction, the U.S. UHV transformers (including reactors), TBEA, China West Power, Tianwei change the market share of the three will be 40%, 30% and 30%.
In the field of UHV GIS, the six-bay GIS in the UHV demonstration project was equally divided among Pinggao Electric, China West Electric and Northeast Electric. Analysts believe that although the technical sources of the companies are different, the product technology gap is not large and it is expected that the current market share will continue to be maintained during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
In the field of converter valves, related companies mainly include China Xideng and XJ Electric.
In addition to the three major product areas mentioned above, the listed companies of related production equipment also include latitude and longitude electrical materials for the production of reactor upstream conductors, Tongda shares for the production of transmission lines, shares in the production of transmission towers, the Oriental Tower, Wuzhou Pearl, etc. .
State Grid Corporation of China stated that the UHV transmission project has been listed in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". According to the plan, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the state will invest more than 500 billion yuan to build a "three vertical and three horizontal" UHV AC backbone grid and 11 UHV HVDC transmission projects, of which the exchange of UHV investment accounts for about 2 / 3.
Shenyin Wanguo predicts that among the 500 billion yuan in investment, it is expected that the investment in AC lines will reach 300 billion yuan, and UHV DC line investment will reach 200 billion yuan.
“We used to think that the development of UHV will encounter various problems. Now from the official standpoint, the development of UHV is a relatively certain event. The growth in this area in the next few years is relatively certain.†Shanghai Tongyi Fu Ming Investment Management Co., Ltd., director of investment Chen Ming recently accepted the "Financial Business" reporter from China Business News.
So, for investors, how do you grasp the investment opportunities on this topic?
UHV rises as a national strategy It is understood that the so-called UHV power grid is a transmission network that delivers AC 1000 kV and DC voltages of plus or minus 800 kilovolts and can carry current over long distances, large capacity, and low losses.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†plan just released has clearly proposed adapting to the large-scale cross-regional transmission and new energy generation grid connection requirements, accelerating the construction of a modern power grid system, further expanding the scale of West-to-East power transmission, improving the regional backbone power grid, and developing the UHV Such as large capacity, high efficiency, long-distance advanced transmission technology.
Analysts believe that although there have been many controversies regarding UHV construction in the academic community, this measure not only signals that UHV construction has risen to a national strategy, but also fully clarified the UHV construction expectation, undoubtedly giving UTV investment opportunities. The capital market has eaten a "centering pill."
Yin Jianhui, an analyst at Nanjing Securities, believes: “This affirmed UHV construction at the national level and dispelled the doubts surrounding UHV construction. In the next few years, UHV will develop rapidly under the promotion of the national grid, and relevant equipment manufacturers will be significant. Benefit."
“China’s power grid construction does require UHV. In fact, China’s power generation has always been oversupply, but in some areas, electricity is lacking all year round. The main reason is that the transmission capacity of the grid cannot keep up, and developing the UHV can solve this problem.†Zhong Hang Securities researcher Pan Hangxi told reporters.
It is understood that the main feature of the smart grid is that it can connect different levels of power plants and can solve cross-regional issues. UHV technology, on the other hand, is mainly capable of connecting large capacity power plants with large capacity. Due to the huge transmission capacity, it can solve the congestion problem.
In fact, Japan’s recent nuclear leakage has also given a boost to the development of the UHV. Founder Securities analyst Li Xin believes that in the shadow of Japan’s nuclear leakage, if the development of nuclear power slows down, from the perspective of the new energy industry as a whole, wind power and other new energy sources are expected to accelerate development and complement it. While the new energy base is far away from the load center, the UHV power grid is urgently needed to solve the problem of long-distance transportation and consumption.
Although the prospects for development are promising, what are the main risk factors for investing in this sector?
"The main issue is the progress of the development. Although in the next five years, the State Grid Corporation will build more than one line. However, it has not been approved yet, and it is difficult to grasp the timing. When it comes to specific listed companies, when they can really make a profit, they also compare. It's difficult to confirm," said Pan Hangxi.
Leading companies benefit the most For the progress of UHV work in 2011, the State Grid Corporation of China stated clearly that it is necessary to ensure that the Huainan (Tainan)-Shanghai UHV AC project is approved in the first quarter, and strives for Ximeng-Nanjing, Huainan (Nanjing)-Shanghai UHV exchanges. In the first half of the year, the project approved the UHV AC project in Mengxi-Changsha, Jingbian-Lianyungang (601008) and Xiluodu-Zhexi, Hami-Henan UHVDC projects during the year.
Market participants believe that if this plan can be successfully implemented, it means that the construction of seven lines will bring a huge wave of equipment investment. According to Shen Wan, only the two lines of Xiluodu-Zhexi and Hami-Henan UHV DC projects will invest 19.4 billion yuan and 23 billion yuan respectively. If all 7 lines are opened, the investment will be huge. .
Hu Wenzhou, an analyst at BOC International, believes that the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" is the first phase of China's grid investment peak period, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 25%. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be the second phase of China's power grid investment. Unlike the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", UHV will become the "engine" of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" grid investment, leading companies will benefit the most.
Wang Jing, a researcher at Hongyuan Securities, said: "The second quarter will be the timing for the UHV DC line to pass the review and announcement, which is expected to significantly boost the performance of the sector. We recommend that we focus on companies with resilient performance."
It is understood that investment in UHV investment, equipment investment accounted for about 45%, including transformers (including reactors) accounted for about 30% of equipment investment, GIS (referring to sulfur hexafluoride closed type combination of electrical appliances, internationally known as "gas insulation Metal-enclosed switchgears" account for about 25%, and transformers account for about 10%.
Shenyin Wanguo believes that UHV AC transformers (including reactors) investment will reach 42 billion yuan, GIS investment will reach 35 billion yuan, and investment in transformers will reach 14 billion yuan. .
“I think there are mainly three entry points for finding investment opportunities. One is the absolute yield obtained in the UHV construction, the second is the relative rate of return, and the other is the level of valuation.†Pan Hangyi believes that besides investors are familiar with the leading In addition to the company, there are many companies that produce iron towers, conductive lines, and gadgets that can pay due attention.
Manufacturers such as transformers and GIS can focus on understanding that the main products and production capacity of integrated UHV AC and DC lines can be found that transformers, GIS and converter valves in the UHV primary equipment industry in China have the highest technical barriers and investment opportunities. The most noteworthy.
Among them, in UHV transformers, in the Jindongnan-Jingmen UHV AC pilot demonstration project, TBEA and Tianwei Baoji won bids for 6 and 4 UHV transformers respectively, and China Xideng won 11 reactors. The company already has UHV transformer production capabilities.
Therefore, Shenyin Wanguo predicts that in the “Twelfth Five Year†UHV construction, the U.S. UHV transformers (including reactors), TBEA, China West Power, Tianwei change the market share of the three will be 40%, 30% and 30%.
In the field of UHV GIS, the six-bay GIS in the UHV demonstration project was equally divided among Pinggao Electric, China West Electric and Northeast Electric. Analysts believe that although the technical sources of the companies are different, the product technology gap is not large and it is expected that the current market share will continue to be maintained during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
In the field of converter valves, related companies mainly include China Xideng and XJ Electric.
In addition to the three major product areas mentioned above, the listed companies of related production equipment also include latitude and longitude electrical materials for the production of reactor upstream conductors, Tongda shares for the production of transmission lines, shares in the production of transmission towers, the Oriental Tower, Wuzhou Pearl, etc. .
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