Jianrong Ren, chairman of the board, said yesterday that LED lighting will be the mainstay of chip growth in 2014, and the output value will be directly driven by the LED backlight. However, the competition from the Chinese and Korean manufacturers has not decreased, and the LED industry will continue to emerge in the next 2 years. Horizontal or vertical consolidation, wafer prices will continue to decline, chip manufacturers can only reduce costs. Jianpeng Ren pointed out at a public event yesterday that the LED lighting output value will double in 2014, and the use of automotive LED chips will be the main driver of demand for chips. The output value of NB and smart phone backlight sources is only expected to be flat; he estimates, Next year, the output value of LED backlights and LED lighting will reach one to one. In 2015, it will grow to be twice that of backlights.
Although the demand for LED lighting in 2014 was amazing, the overall LED industry continued to be under price pressure. Jian Feng was an example. In the past two years, the LED industry has actively replaced the 60-watt tungsten light bulb. The price of LED has fallen from US$40 to US$20. Once again, it dropped to 10 US dollars. At this stage, the price has not yet stopped. In addition to price pressure, the strong competition from LED plants in China and Korea is a greater challenge for Taiwanese companies.
Jianfeng assumes that in the next two years, the LED industry will not be able to hold the tide. In addition to the integration of the upper, middle, and lower reaches, integration with the industry may also occur. It is like the past paper industry, from the initial 20 to 30 consolidations. At present, under the pressure of price, Taiwanese companies can only continue to reduce costs.
Jian Fengren said that the wafer factory must improve its product design and manufacturing process, use the smallest amount of materials to make high-efficiency LEDs, and package-free chips and high-voltage HVLEDs are expected to become the two major trends. In particular, HVLED can replace the power supply with one IC. The driver, not only prolongs the service life, the wafer accounts for 30% of the cost of the LED bulb and can be reduced to 20%. With current technology, 200 lumens products per watt can already be made.
Looking forward to 2014, Jianfeng Ren said that the economy will show upward volatility, and the chip ASP may still maintain this year's decline, which is about 10%.
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