The depreciation of the yen will raise my PV threshold

On May 23, Zheng Junwen, a consultant at Zhengming, said: “In the short-term, the recent devaluation of the yen and the depreciation of the yen will have a relatively small impact on the Chinese PV industry. However, in the long run, the devaluation of the yen is not conducive to Chinese PV companies opening up the Japanese market. ."

According to Yan Junwen, after the Fukushima nuclear leak incident in Japan, a large number of nuclear power plants in Japan were shut down. The photovoltaic industry, which can supplement the energy gap, has received much attention. Against this backdrop, Japan’s installed capacity has rapidly increased, surpassing Germany, Italy, and the United States. In 2013, it became the second largest market after China. Japan has also been working hard to attract foreign PV companies to help accelerate supply.

At present, Japan's PV on-grid tariff is the highest in the world, and the support for solar energy is also about three times that of incentive measures provided by Germany and China, the two largest solar technology markets.

JA Solar (NASDAQ, JASO), which recently inflated the wave of global photovoltaic stocks, also made it clear in the 2013Q1 financial report that the company’s performance in the first quarter improved and the Japanese market contributed, highlighting the fact that Japan and the US The importance of the market to Chinese PV companies.

In addition, in the opinion of Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of the new energy industry of Minsheng Securities, the overall revenue of PV companies in the second and third quarter of this year is not as good as the first quarter. In addition to the seasonal impact, the sharp decline in the yen in the second quarter was also a very important reason. This led to the decline in the gross profit margin of PV modules sold in Japan.

Yan Junwen said that although the Japanese PV market is hot, the Japanese PV market has its own particularities. There are two ways to enter the Japanese market. First, product certification requires long-term certification, high barriers to entry, and domestically certified companies. Only a few. The second is to set up a joint venture with Japanese PV companies. The number of companies entering the Japanese market through these two methods is relatively small, and the proportion of Japanese exports to domestic PV products is relatively small.

According to calculations by relevant agencies, a 20% appreciation of the yen will roughly correspond to an increase of about 1.5% in China's real effective exchange rate, which may cause China's actual exports to decline by about 2.5 percentage points. Therefore, the short-term devaluation of the yen has a relatively small impact on China's photovoltaic industry, but In the long run, the devaluation of the yen is not conducive to Chinese PV companies opening up the Japanese market.

On the May 9th US New York foreign exchange market, the yen depreciated again. The yen exchange rate once reached US$100.79 for the exchange rate of US$1, not only breaking the 100-key barrier, but also setting a new record of 49 since April 2009. The new low of the month. Some analysts said that the trend of devaluation of the yen is difficult to change during the year.