In 2010, the network and mobile devices broke the original record, but in 2011 this trend will continue. For example, in 2011, 72 million people watched long TV series online, and at the same time they wanted fast and reliable high-definition services. In 2010, it was predicted that TV ratings accounted for about 37% of the total bandwidth during peak viewing hours, and the continued growth of online ratings has overshadowed this statement. Cisco estimates that in 2013, global network traffic will reach 767 gigabytes. It is difficult to simulate such a large amount of data, because the amount of data is more than 100 times larger than the number of all sand particles covering the earth.
In terms of mobile phones, US telephone operator Berizon launched its 4G LTE network in December 2010, claiming that its performance is 10 times higher than that of its 3G network. With the launch of the current best-selling products in the market, such as the iPhone 4, network bandwidth has also skyrocketed. Users are only concerned about speed and performance. As long as engineers can develop new equipment, operators will use these new equipment to improve their services in the first time.
At the same time, in some developing regions, the cost of deploying 2G networks will continue to decrease; network expansion in emerging markets will continue to accelerate in 2011.
Therefore, in 2011, the first task for the optical communications industry is to support faster data rates, more powerful conversions, and smarter network frameworks, which can handle some unpredictable and rapidly changing data traffic patterns and improve cost efficiency.
As the telecommunications market is born, the optical market will continue to shift to other existing new fields; the industry will develop new products and technologies. Suppliers who can combine product innovation with optimized supply chains will undoubtedly occupy an absolute advantage in all these areas.
Now, let us discuss the development trend of optical communication in 2011 in further detail.
The optical communications industry has become more efficient, but it is still looking forward to a more complete supply chain
The merger of network equipment manufacturers (NEMs) before and after the downturn will make a profit in 2011, because then there will be fewer large enterprises able to obtain the profits of the network industry. Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei will compete with each other for the leading position in the communications industry in 2011; at the same time, Ciena, through its successful acquisition of Nortel, continues to reduce the distance between the other two leaders (Alcatel Lucent and Huawei).
In 2011, network equipment manufacturers will adhere to the strategy of acquiring components from a few optoelectronic suppliers and simplify the supply chain. Small device suppliers are likely to encounter challenges unless they can provide special targeted products.
Optical device suppliers will continue to face the challenge of fluctuating demand in the supply chain in 2011. All suppliers are aware of the need to reduce recovery time, improve predictability, and implement strategic inventory holdings. Even if the demand growth trend is strong, the improvement of the production process will reduce the production cycle of most major products to one to two weeks in the coming year.
The emergence of awareness networks
In 2011, we will develop components and systems that can add intelligence to the physical layer of network transmission. The purpose of developing these new optical devices is to create a perception network; these perception networks have a flexible photonic layer that can adapt to constantly changing traffic patterns, new applications, and sudden bandwidth fluctuations.
The popular terms of the three industries-any wavelength (colorless), any direction (direcTIonless) and any competition (contenTIonless) very vividly describe the important characteristics of the perception network. These features give the ability to reach any communication destination with any type of network wavelength in any direction.
Complex optical conversion devices are currently being developed to build network and node architectures, and thus provide flexible and automatic end-to-end wavelengths, transceivers, and routers. These new devices and architectures will be based on wavelength selective switches (WSS) and improve WSS.
Network equipment manufacturers will accelerate the adoption of optical circuit packages that incorporate more optical functions and hardware into small packages. This smart device line card has been proven to provide cost and density advantages through integration at the sub-module level.
It is expected to transform into a perceptual network containing the above optical elements in 2013 and 2014.
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