The subsidy for new energy vehicles is to implement the deployment and requirements of the State Council on cultivating strategic emerging industries and strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction. The central government arranges special funds to support private pilots to purchase new energy vehicles. This article mainly introduces the information on the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2018. Let's take a look.
2018 subsidies for new energy vehicles (subsidies) - 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy policyIn 2018, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is mainly adjusted from three aspects: the subdivision of the cruising range subsidy will be finer, the battery energy density requirement will be increased, and the energy consumption coefficient will be subsidized.
1, pure electric passenger car
The picture shows that compared to the 2017 pure electric passenger car subsidy, the details of subsidies in 2018 changed more:
(1) The subsidy threshold will be further improved. The subsidy standard will be adjusted from the third grade in 2017 to the fifth grade. The mileage threshold will be increased from 100 km in 2017 to 150 km, and the subsidy amount will be adjusted from 20,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan. / car. To be straightforward, a car has a cruising range of at least 150 kilometers to receive a subsidy of 10,000 yuan.
(2) The energy density of the pure electric passenger car battery pack has also been adjusted. The 2017 policy is not less than 90Wh/kg, and the subsidy is 1.1 times higher than 120Wh/kg. In 2018, the minimum energy requirement of the battery pack is required to reach 105 Wh/kg, and the energy density is 120 (excluding) ~140 Wh/kg. The central financial subsidy adjustment factor is 1, and the adjustment factor of 140 Wh/kg or more is 1.1.
(3) It should be noted that the 2018 pure electric unit battery power subsidy limit does not exceed 1100 yuan / KWh. The local financial bicycle subsidy ceiling remains unchanged, and it is still no more than 50% of the central government bicycle subsidy.
2. New energy bus
The discussion papers revealed show that compared with pure electric passenger cars, the adjustment of new energy bus subsidies is even stronger, the slope of the decline is nearly 40%, and the cap of the bicycle country is adjusted to not exceed 180,000 yuan (2017: 230,000) Yuan), the upper limit of the national supplement + land subsidy was reduced to 270,000 yuan.
(1) The central financial subsidy standards for non-fast-charged pure electric buses, fast-charged pure electric buses, and plug-in hybrid buses have been reduced by 1100 yuan/kWh, 2,000 yuan/kWh, and 1,500 yuan/kWh respectively.
(2) The lowest grade of system energy density for non-fast-charged pure electric buses is increased from 85-95 (inclusive) Wh/kg in the 2017 subsidy program to 110-120 (inclusive) Wh/kg. The local financial bicycle subsidy ceiling remains unchanged, and it is still no more than 50% of the central government bicycle subsidy.
According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, even if the amount of subsidies is lowered, the maximum amount will be reduced from 450,000 to 270,000. Compared with the maximum of 150,000 from 2017 to 450,000 in 2017, the impact is relatively small.
3. New energy trucks and special vehicles
In 2018, the three-subsidy subsidy standard for new energy trucks and special-purpose vehicle subsidy schemes was lowered from 2017, and the national bicycle subsidy ceiling was adjusted from 150,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan.
The lowest mass energy density of the power battery system is increased from 90Wh/kg to 115Wh/kg. The local financial bicycle subsidy ceiling remains unchanged, and it is still no more than 50% of the central government bicycle subsidy.
Impact on the industryJudging from the mini electric vehicles currently on the market, most of the models have a driving range of less than 200 kilometers, of which 150 to 200 kilometers are mostly. Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said that if the adjustment policy of the network transmission is true, there is no doubt that small and small electric vehicles under 150 kilometers will be hit hard, and the number of related models will be drastically reduced.
In addition, 150-200 km of small and micro electric vehicles will also face subsidies halved, the degree of attack can not be ignored.
Since the beginning of this year, sales of new energy passenger vehicles have achieved a continuous monthly growth of 9 months, with sales reaching 65,000 units in October, an increase of 7 million units from September and a year-on-year growth rate of 102%. Among them, the miniature electric vehicles continued to maintain a strong position, and the total amount accounted for a large proportion. According to the data of October this year, Beiqi EC series, Zhidou D2, Jianghuai iEV6S/E are ranked first and third runners respectively with 11,315, 4,502 and 2,861 vehicles, all of which are A00-class electric vehicles. The extent is obvious.
A large part of the popularity of small and micro electric vehicles in the market is that the price is low. If the subsidies in this area are suddenly reduced or cancelled, the sales volume will be affected. Yin Chengliang further pointed out that not only the impact on enterprises will be very obvious, but the overall impact on new energy vehicles will not be underestimated. The index of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles driven by policies will be difficult to complete. In addition, the scores of such vehicles in the double-point policy are not high. In the case of a sharp drop in subsidies, it is highly probable that small and micro-electric vehicles will be abandoned by car companies.
The impact of subsidies on the decline of power battery companies1, the forced power battery price reduction
New energy subsidies continue to decline, and in order to achieve their own profits, new energy vehicles will start price wars in the future, and the resulting cost pressure will be directly transferred to power battery companies.
An unnamed power battery company official said, "The cost of power battery is not the same because the production scale is not going up. After the large-scale production, the research and development costs and manufacturing costs are allocated, and the cost can be reduced. The main reason for the large-scale production of power batteries is that the market for new energy vehicles is limited and local protectionism is prevalent."
According to statistics, local protection directly leads to the difficulty of entering new energy vehicles in 70% of the country's local markets. Directly lead to the need for sustained and rapid decline in battery prices, in order to cope with the pressure of new energy vehicles after the subsidies have subsided.
2. It is expected that there will be a rush to install the market and eliminate backward production capacity.
The starting point study (SPIR) analysis said that the third quarter report of a number of car companies indicates that the next car market will enter a period of weakness, which in turn affects many domestic battery companies are arranging production cuts and concentrating on inventory. At present, the only thing that can be optimistic is that the subsidy will be affected in advance, and it is expected that there will be a rush to buy in the fourth quarter.
The starting point study (SPIR) predicts that by the end of 2017, China's power battery capacity will reach 140Gwh, and the total installed capacity of lithium batteries in China in the first 10 months of this year is 18.3GWh. It can be seen from these two data that the actual supporting capacity of the power battery and the planning capacity of the battery enterprise are very large. With the further adjustment of the subsidy policy, the problem of serious overcapacity of low-end power batteries and insufficient high-end capacity will be seriously highlighted.
Therefore, from this perspective, the impact value of first-tier enterprises is low, and market share can be further expanded by upgrading technical standards; and the situation of second- and third-tier enterprises will be more difficult, especially for technological strength and subsidies. The edge of the business.
The threshold increases the impact geometry?From the discussion of the network discussion, the first is that the subsidy quota is divided according to the driving mileage, the subsidy for the low driving mileage is reduced, and the subsidy for the high driving mileage is increased. The subsidy threshold for battery energy density is increased from 90Wh/kg to 95Wh/kg. Or the threshold is unchanged and the subsidy factor has dropped.
In addition, for new energy buses, the bicycle subsidy ceiling is adjusted to not more than 180,000 yuan, and the subsidy ceiling for the national subsidy and land is reduced to 270,000 yuan.
In this regard, Yin Chengliang said that the battery is one of the most important components of the new energy bus. According to the content of the discussion paper, the cost of subsidizing even the battery can not be reached. In contrast, the fuel bus is cheaper. If the subsidy is adjusted in this way, it is very likely that the price will be reversed.
According to the subsidy program issued by several ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will fall by 20% in 2017-2018, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will fall by 40% from 2016. In the latest rumors, the 2019 subsidy decline standard will be implemented ahead of schedule in 2018.
Yin Chengliang said that he is in favor of a system of subsidies for new energy vehicles, but he hopes that the retreat will have policy coherence. When the production enterprise is adjusted, the sudden declining policy will break the rhythm of the company's original research and development, production and promotion, so that the company is at a loss.
Judging from the signals released by the discussion paper, the most important adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2018 is to put forward higher technical requirements for new energy batteries. The state has adjusted the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and raised the threshold for new energy vehicles, which is conducive to accelerating the promotion of the survival of the fittest in the industry and the development of technological competition.
According to an industry insider who did not want to be named, the subsidy policy is under discussion in 2018, and the actual policy will also modify the discussion draft. The final policy may need to be revised.
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