“In the past, we all thought that the resources for wind speeds of 4m/s and 5m/s were not worth developing. Now, with the development of wind projects in low wind speed areas, we can see the value inside.†Wang Haibo, president of Goldwind Technologies, is The opening ceremony of the 2017 International Wind Energy Conference was held recently.
Accompanied by the serious phenomenon of wind curtailment and power shortage in the Three North Region, and the development of large-scale large-scale wind resource bases, wind power developers and complete machine manufacturers have turned their sights to areas with good low wind speed such as the eastern and southern regions. This has brought two irreversible trends to China's wind power industry: low wind speed and decentralized wind power.
Why did decentralized wind power not develop?
When it comes to decentralized wind power, many people feel that "it was a big morning, but it was a late set."
As early as 2011, the National Energy Administration issued the “Guidelines for the Development and Construction of Decentralized Access Wind Power Projectsâ€, which standardized and unified the development of decentralized wind power.
The “13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development†released in 2016 clearly stated that in accordance with the principle of “near access and local consumptionâ€, wind energy resources should be distributed widely and applied flexibly, and environmental protection and soil and water conservation should be done well. On the basis of the restoration of vegetation and vegetation, we will accelerate the large-scale development of onshore wind energy resources in the eastern and southern regions.
In June of this year, the Energy Bureau issued the "Circular on Accelerating the Construction of Decentralized Access to Wind Power Projects." It has once again encouraged the accelerated development of decentralized wind power from areas not subject to annual guidance and simplifying the approval process.
However, it has been 6 years since the first decentralized wind power was formally proposed by the Energy Bureau. China has not made significant progress in the exploration of decentralized wind power.
Beijing Fishery New Energy Investment Co., Ltd. General Manager Yu Jiangtao revealed at a seminar on wind power development in southern Middle East this year: “The decentralized wind power grid connection in China accounts for only about 1% of the total wind power grid connection in the country, which is far below At the European level, its development level also lags behind that of China's distributed photovoltaics.
Policy support, market trends seem to be good Decentralized wind power Why did such an embarrassing situation?
The first issue is approval. “Approving a large wind farm for six months, it is also a half-year for a decentralized wind turbine to be approved, and that's a decentralized cost developer that cannot afford it,†Wang Haibo said.
The development of decentralized wind power is not as flexible as distributed PV and the investment cost is low. The development of wind power is capital-intensive. Most of the developers are large state-owned enterprises with strong financial strength and relatively easy loans. For them, the decentralized wind power development is low and labor-intensive. Enterprises with relatively small volumes cannot withstand the high-risk pressure of investment in wind power.
The second problem is land use. Because decentralized wind power has better access conditions, it can be built on a flat, near-by-user site, unlike wind power development on the mountain. The reality is that most of the places that do not require road maintenance are basic farmland. If you want to do wind power projects on basic farmland, you need to make a report at a level. Some people also mentioned that China’s existing regulations are that decentralized wind turbines must not be less than 500m away from residential areas, which has led to many places where resources are not good enough to build units.
In addition, many industry figures including Qin Haiyan have stated that a very important factor in the slow pace of decentralized development is that the investment thinking of China’s developers has not yet changed, and it has remained in the state of “holding watermelons†in the past. Yang Xiaosheng, chairman of the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association's wind energy equipment branch, also said that the assessment of the performance of SOEs has led developers to focus only on small ones.
Yang Xiaosheng also mentioned that in the development of decentralized wind power in rural areas, land ownership is a key issue. If the land is farmer's, the developer is happy to give farmers some income. However, in our country, the land is owned by the state, and the farmers have no incentive to give the farm land to the wind power enterprise.
Is decentralized wind power the next step for the wind power industry?
“In the past everyone went to the west, and they were all big watermelons. Now there are no watermelons. They can only smash sesame seeds.†Qin Haiyan, secretary-general of the Wind Energy Association, made an analogy to illustrate the current status of wind power companies that they have to face. He believes that the next step for China's wind power industry lies in decentralized wind power.
Qin Haiyan put forward a set of data to prove his point: In Germany, the installed capacity per unit area is 138kW/km2, which can reach 400kW/km2 in some areas, while in Hunan, China, this value is only 20kW/km2. Although the installed capacity of the German unit is many kilowatts, but it does not see the scene of fans all over the place, and more is the fan in twos and threes. If Germany can make full use of decentralized wind power, there is no reason for China to develop decentralized wind power.
While some people were optimistic about decentralized wind power, another part expressed concern.
According to Bi Yaxiong, deputy general manager of the Three Gorges Group, both wind power and photovoltaics must follow the principle of market orientation. Do not discuss a set of policies that are expected to be universally applicable.
He believes that China’s current electricity supply is surplus in the next 5 or even 10 years, so investment in new energy sources cannot be blindly fanatic. While we are seeing the rapid development of wind power and photovoltaics, we should also note that this year's wind power photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded 200 million kilowatts, and China’s hydropower capacity is 300 million kilowatts. Next year, wind power plus photovoltaics will surpass the installed capacity of hydropower, and hydropower No subsidies are required, but the subsidy gap for wind power and photovoltaic has reached 60 billion yuan. Therefore, we must consider the market's ability to accept while vigorously developing.
Jin Xiaolong, president of Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group, expressed similar concerns. He said that if the entire wind power industry treats decentralized wind as the outlet, it will conflict with the goal of reducing the cost of wind power to achieve parity access, and eventually brings itself to the ditch. "."
Development of decentralized wind power requires complete machine operators to take responsibility and introduce social capital
In the discussion, the above-mentioned persons expressed their opinions on how to better explore the business model of decentralized wind power and mobilize the enthusiasm of developers. However, there are several points that have been reached and consensus has been reached.
First, we must actively introduce social capital to participate in the decentralized wind power development.
Tian Qingjun, Vice President of Vision Energy stated that many of the decentralized resources in Central and Eastern China concentrate on the development of the remaining high-quality resources. Wind speeds in some areas of Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui can reach 6m/s. Such resources are difficult to find in centralized development. As a result, the overall economic benefits of developing decentralized wind power projects in these areas are still objective. However, the key is to have more interests to participate in. If social capital, farmers, and the government can participate in the issue, the problem of land use will be solved. The benefits will be shared by all.
Second, the whole machine manufacturing company must take responsibility and play an important role in this wave of relocation to the east and the west.
Representatives of machine manufacturers attending the meeting all stated that the development of decentralized wind power is not only a test for developers, but also a test for manufacturers. How to design and manufacture low wind speeds and ensure that the project's profitability is particularly important under this scenario.
In addition, with the advancement of digitalization of wind turbines, future wind turbines will realize self-learning and self-maintenance, which brings great convenience to the operation and maintenance of decentralized wind power. In addition, in the process of taking the lead in stimulating the participation of all parties, machine manufacturers should also play an important role in actively participating in the development process and truly reflect the benefits of decentralized wind power, which will also mobilize developers. Enthusiasm.
“The best way to predict the future is to realize it.†For the future of decentralized wind power, Qin Haiyan always holds a firm belief. So, is decentralized wind power the next tuyere? What do you think?
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