According to foreign media reports, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Twitter on April 13 that Tesla will achieve profitability and positive cash flow in the third and fourth quarter of this year. Earlier this month, Tesla said that the company does not need to refinance this year. On April 13, Tesla’s share price rose 2.1% to US$300.34.
Musk recently visited the Fremont plant in Tesla with the US CBS television station. This is the first time that the network camera has been allowed to enter the Tesla production line. Musk is so optimistic, mainly due to his prediction of the Tesla Model3 production process. In the course of leading the CBS tour, Musk pointed out that after solving some of the production obstacles, Tesla's current production may be around 2,000. In addition, Musk also pointed out that Model3's capacity in the second quarter may increase by three times and four times.
For the reason that Model3's previous production capacity lags, Musk said "over-automation" is a big reason. "It was a mistake for Tesla to over-automate. To be precise, it was my fault." Musk acknowledged that placing too many robots at Tesla, underestimating the efficiency of human beings was a major factor in the lower production capacity of Model3. However, less than a year ago, Musk had boasted that Tesla had the advantage of programming robots to produce cars faster than traditional carmakers. "We have exciting but complicated conveyor belts, but they don't work, so we don't use them anymore."
Tesla's forecast seems too optimistic compared to the expectations of the capital market. According to an average forecast of analysts cited by Bloomberg, Tesla will burn 994 million US dollars in the second half of this year. In addition, analysts also predict that Tesla’s adjusted net losses in the third and fourth quarters of this year will reach US$192 million and US$35 million, respectively.
However, analysts or investors will not believe Musk's estimate this time, given that Musk had not previously achieved an optimistic estimate of production capacity. In response, Musk said, “A big problem for many analysts is that they seem to look at things from the rearview mirror instead of the front windshield. This is why many people underestimate Tesla because they have been staring What Sela used to do in the past and use the past to measure what we can do in the future."
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