At an industry forum, Jiang Bing, chairman of the State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., said in a speech that electric vehicles will once again change the world. Forecasting the future of new energy to 2022, Jiang Bing made the following four viewpoints for the electric vehicle market, which he called “four gray rhinosâ€.
Gray Rhinoceros One: Electric Vehicles Realize "Oil Level Price"
1. According to the calculation of the cost composition of electric vehicles, the cost of power batteries will drop to US$100/kWh, and the price of electric vehicles will be equivalent to that of traditional fuel vehicles.
2. The cost of the power lithium battery system is the key to the “oil price levelâ€.
3. For every doubling of accumulated shipments, the price of solar cells is reduced by about 20%.
4, according to power lithium battery shipments trend forecast, by 2023 or so, the power battery prices will drop to 0.6-0.7 / watt-hour, about 100 US dollars / kwh, electric cars will achieve absolute "oil-level price."
Gray Rhino II: Photovoltaic power generation will become the cheapest energy
1. There is intermittent and volatility in the power generation of new energy such as solar energy, and the electric vehicles are highly flexible and controllable, and they can be well adapted to eliminate clean energy and realize new energy vehicles to charge new energy.
2. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market prices of PV modules and inverters decreased by approximately 92% from 2007 to 2017, respectively.
3. Actually according to the current trend, the photovoltaic power cost in 2022 can be reduced to 0.4/kWh.
Gray Rhino 3: Distributed Energy Storage for Commercial Applications
1. With the advancement of energy storage technology, the reduction of battery cost and the improvement of the electricity market, distributed energy storage is expected to be commercialized before and after 2022. Electric car battery is the lowest cost energy storage device.
Gray Rhino IV: The deployment of 5G network will be basically completed
1,5G is the last restrictive factor for the development of electric vehicles, it will promote the electric vehicle to complete the magnificent leap from "Nokia" to "Apple."
2, 5G network has ultra-high speed, downlink rate can exceed 20Gbps, uplink rate exceeds 10Gbps. The network delay is 1ms, and it has a connection density of one million connections per square kilometer and a connection of one hundred billionth order.
He pointed out that for the future energy, the bottom clean, distributed, energy storage, Internet of things, big data, etc. are all factors to consider. Electric vehicles are an important basic unit in the future energy system. Charging piles are an important basic port and a connector and key hardware for connecting the new energy and electric vehicles to the two trillion-class market.
He said that by 2030, the number of electric vehicles will reach 100 million, and the power of vehicle-mounted power batteries will exceed 1 billion kilowatts, equivalent to 50 Three Gorges power stations; the number of electric vehicles in 2040 will reach 200 million, and the power of onboard power batteries. It will exceed 2 billion kilowatts, which is equivalent to 100 Three Gorges power stations. If we consider retiring power batteries, the power battery power will increase by 200 million kilowatts by 2030.
There is no doubt that the power of cars and more and more mobile machinery has switched from fuel to electricity. If it can be combined with renewable energy, it may bring benefits to society at an unimaginable level. This is a huge system project that affects the overall situation and affects the future. At present, everything is still at the starting point and it is necessary to plan ahead and do a good job of top-level design.
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