Discussion on Distributed PV Power Pricing Model

In addition to the initial subsidy projects, photovoltaic power plants are a kind of low-yield and stable investment. Unlike investment in other assets, there will be high expected returns, or the rate of return may increase substantially. Stability therefore becomes the only advantage for photovoltaic power plants to attract investment. . Once the stability of the power station's revenue cannot be guaranteed, the photovoltaic system will become a baby that doesn't hurt or does not love.

The current distributed power plant policy encourages self-investment by power companies. If most companies are willing to invest in construction, then self-use is a very good model. Can the real situation be so?

Photovoltaic power plants need to recover investment for at least 8-10 years, that is, the user's working capital will be backlog for a long time, and the loans need collateral, which is difficult for private enterprises. In the current economic situation, the vast majority of companies' liquidity is already very tight. Under the premise that the stability of photovoltaic power plants cannot be clearly ensured, PV power plant assets cannot be used as effective collateral in exchange for loans, and the stability of power plant revenue depends on the In the user's own business stability, unable to endorse their own credit. Of course, for large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, it may be possible to solve major investment funds through credit loans. The universality of policies is inevitably challenged.

Assuming that electricity companies don't invest in themselves, then PV power plants rely on electricity sales to earn profits. The stability of power generation systems and the stability of electricity charges will all be related to the possibility of investment returns. Power generation is sold to the national power grid, and the benefits can be expected. And it's equivalent to the State Grid's credit endorsement of this asset; but if the electricity sent out is sold to electricity companies, can you ensure that the electricity bill is recovered? Even if it can be recovered, the price paid will not be less. According to the author's understanding, the vast majority of Golden Sun's current projects with users' electricity bills have problems in collecting electricity bills. Then the same discounted price, the same signing of the agreement, distributed and how good to go?

For small-scale photovoltaic power plants, sales of electricity can be achieved without boosting, which is the same as the initial investment in self-utilization of surplus electricity. For a small-scale photovoltaic distributed power station (1MW or more), there is little difference in the investment in self-use power grid and boost power grid mode. This type of power station is self-use or directly sold to the power grid, from the cost and Technically, there is not much difference.

It can be seen that there is a certain degree of difficulty for users to invest in distributed photovoltaic power plants. The real self-invested enterprises are mainly concentrated in large-scale state-owned enterprises. The profit stability that professional PV investors hope to obtain can only rely on the fixed electricity price model to sell power to the power grid. Guarantee. If it is for the distributed power station to choose whether to use it for its own use or whether the fixed electricity price is to be determined by investors, it is believed that most companies will choose to use the fixed price model.

Why do you choose to use your own self-use as a guideline in the beginning of distributed policy development? How is it considered when formulating policies? Here, I only do some simple exploration:

If the distributed planned 15GW photovoltaic power station adopts the fixed electricity price model (assuming the electricity price is 1 yuan/kWh), the total financial capital for 20 years will be about 200 billion yuan (the price of the desulfurization electricity price to be paid by the grid company will be deducted); For self-used Internet access models, assuming that the final electricity revenue is the same for users, the 15GW will require about 150 billion yuan of financial subsidies (according to the newly announced financial subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh). There is a 50 billion yuan difference between the two funds, which effectively relieved the Ministry of Finance's new energy funding pressure.

For photovoltaic power plants, the benefits are the same. So who is the difference? Let's give an example:

A park has A, B, C, D, E, a total of 5 companies, an average of 10,000 per household electricity per month (peak and peak integrated price of 0.8 yuan), A, B, C three companies installed photovoltaic power plants, a total of Monthly electricity generation 20000 degrees (assuming it is completely used), then the electricity company's electricity charge amount from the previous 40,000 yuan into the current 24,000 yuan; if the fixed electricity price model, the photovoltaic power generated by 1 yuan per kWh The cost per degree of electricity that the grid company pays is local desulfurization price (assuming 0.43 yuan, and the remaining 0.57 yuan as national financial subsidies). The total amount of electricity that the grid company collects per month is still 40,000 yuan, and the purchase of electricity is 20,000 degrees, equivalent to 8,600 yuan; The net income of the grid company from the park's net income is 3,140 yuan, which is 7,400 yuan more than the previous 24,000 yuan.

The original difference was from the grid company. However, what the author wants to understand is that there is a difference in the overall budget for the grid companies out of this money and finances.

From the point of view of the rights and obligations of the distributed photovoltaic power station construction approval, post-regulation, and fund appropriation, if it is a fixed electricity price power sales model, and from the actual operability, then this right and obligation can only be fully attributed to the power grid company. If it is to adopt the self-occupied mode for off-line Internet access, part of its rights and obligations (such as meter reading, etc.) may be implemented by the grid company, and special agencies may be responsible for the construction approval, post-regulation, and fund appropriation. The author once conceived that policy makers may want to contribute to the reform of the electricity market. Photovoltaic power generation is operated as an independent electricity purchase and sale system. After the mechanism matures, it will promote the separation of electricity, electricity and electricity. Overall reform.

However, the State Council's latest "Guo Fa (2013) No. 24" document stipulates that distributed photovoltaic power plants only need to be filed and no approval is required; furthermore, the measurement and settlement are the responsibility of the grid company. This provision allowed the author's conjecture to fall empty. The rights and obligations of meter reading and payment settlement were clearly given to the grid companies. Filing a plain statement means that the National Development and Reform Commission will no longer need to approve, but the power company's access application report still has to fight. , On-site installation of metering meters and meter readings will be performed by the grid company personnel on site power station acceptance and supervision, in general, is completely implemented by the grid company.

If this is the case, then from the strategic perspective of planning, there is no reasonable justification for not supporting the fixed price model.

From a global point of view, at present, some countries have begun to adopt the self-owned mode of Internet access, such as Germany, Italy, and a few European countries. Are policy developments expected to align with these application-leading countries?

However, there are two prerequisites for these countries to consider the policy transition. First, the installed capacity of PV in these two countries accounted for a large proportion of the total installed capacity of power generation equipment in the country (more than 10% in Italy and 20% in Germany). The absorption capacity of the power grid for PV has been nearly saturated, and it needs to be stored. Energy facilities can be used to reduce the impact of photovoltaic systems on the grid; Second, the price of electricity for residential use in these two countries is 0.2 Euro or more, and it grows at a certain rate each year, which is much higher than the subsidy price of photovoltaic electricity in their countries. This has given residents or small and medium-sized enterprises the incentive to install photovoltaic hybrid systems (with energy storage systems).

In our country, the current PV on-grid tariff is equal to or higher than the user's electricity price. PV power plant investors do not have the power to match the energy storage system; in addition, the PV installation capacity in the eastern and central regions accounts for less than 1% of the total capacity of the power generation equipment. There is still a long way to go from the upper limit of the capacity of the grid. It is not necessary to consider these issues at present.

Of course, in early Japan, Australia, and some parts of the United States, there are also self-use models for off-line Internet access. This is because a large part of the supporting subsidies was honored at the time of initial installation. The United States is taking the tax rebate model.

It seems to me that determining the policy guide based on market demand is an inevitable choice under the conditions of market economy. If we violate the market demand, we cannot truly achieve industrial take-off. Appeals to policy makers that at the current stage when China's photovoltaic industry needs strong support, many PV module manufacturers face the critical moment of survival, and the policy can no longer withstand the test of time. It is hoped that in the distributed PV subsidy policy, the self-use mode and the fixed electricity price online mode can be freely selected, and the users will decide on their own according to the actual situation of the power plant.

Beijing Shunyi's Ruhai family power station chose the fixed-price electricity grid model. He has sent all the electricity generated by the photovoltaic grid into the power grid, and delivered the fixed-grid tariff subsidies application to the local development and reform commission in the previous period. We hope to see this soon. An iconic project can obtain a fixed price subsidy and at the same time be able to determine the feasibility of the user's own choice.