5 billion yuan domestic photovoltaic inverter market in 5 years

Abstract: It is expected that by 2015, even considering the decrease in selling price, the market size of photovoltaic inverters will exceed 100 billion yuan. The domestic PV installed capacity target will be substantially raised to 10GW, which is twice the previously announced target. Assuming that all of these installations are connected to the grid, it is estimated that by 2015, the domestic inverter market will reach 10 billion yuan.

Recently, the solar power industry continues to be favored by the market. The cost of solar power will reach the bargain price in the next 3 to 5 years. This will bring about an explosion in the demand for solar power generation, and the photovoltaic inverter market will also grow substantially.

Photovoltaic inverters are the last large-scale and unexploited rich mines in the photovoltaic industry. According to calculations, the current market size of photovoltaic inverters is about 43 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2015, even considering the decline in selling prices, the market size of photovoltaic inverters will exceed 100 billion yuan, which is not enough for photovoltaic components. With a sub-billion-dollar fine-grained industry, the winners of the competition are expected to become super-billion-dollar companies.

It is understood that the current global photovoltaic inverter market is dominated by major manufacturers such as SMA. The SMA that entered the market first dominated the 40% market and was the undisputed leader. The top four manufacturers accounted for more than 60% of the market share. At present, domestic companies have a small share of the photovoltaic inverter market, accounting for about 5%.

In fact, from the perspective of industry properties, photovoltaic inverters are more suitable for growing industries in China. The main reasons are: First, China is already the world's largest battery production base and has inherent advantages in the market. Second, Chinese companies have cost advantages. According to our estimation, the cost of domestic inverters is expected to reach 40% of imports. In addition, Chinese companies have a technological basis. Photovoltaic inverter is essentially a power electronic product, and domestic companies have strong competitiveness in the production experience and technical level of power electronics.

In an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal, the relevant person stated that during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, photovoltaic power generation equipment such as inverters were mostly in the stage of R&D and innovation and were less concerned by the policy. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the trend of photovoltaic power generation market is to develop into the whole industry chain, and supporting equipment other than crystalline silicon and modules will be further concerned by the market and policies. The National Development and Reform Commission will include inverters as a guideline encouraged category. This is a manifestation of this trend.

Photovoltaic inverters are the core equipment for photovoltaic systems to access the power grid. Their quality directly affects the stability of photovoltaic power generation systems. At present, the inverter cost is between 1 yuan and 1.5 yuan per watt, which accounts for 10%-15% of the cost of the entire photovoltaic power generation system.

In 2010, China's photovoltaic grid-connected capacity reached 500 megawatts, and the inverter market was around 500 million yuan. Recently, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, publicly stated that by 2015, China's PV installation target will be significantly raised to 10 GW, which is more than double the previously announced target. Assuming that all of these installations are connected to the grid, it is estimated that by 2015, the domestic inverter market will reach 10 billion yuan.

At present, listed companies that have started production or have just entered the inverter field include Kstar, XJ Electric, Rongxin, Kyushu Electric, and Kehua Hengsheng. China Securities Journal reporter learned that Hefei Sunshine is the invisible champion in the production of photovoltaic inverters and wind power converters. Its photovoltaic inverter has a market share of more than 40%. In the near future, the company also has plans to enter the capital market.