The issuance of 4G licenses, which has received much attention from the industry, has made the latest progress. According to sources close to the relevant 4G working group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the final time for the issuance of 4G licenses will be in early November, and the specific time is still being worked out.
Operator competition accelerates the 4G process
This month, news about 4G is overwhelming. At the operator level, China Mobile will start the collection of 40 million TD-LTE smartphones next year; China Telecom (Weibo) conducts the first 10 billion yuan 4G network bidding; and it is rumored that the 4G spectrum allocation problems of the three major operators have been resolved. At the government level, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally approved China Mobile (Weibo) to carry out TD-LTE scale-up trials in 326 cities across the country; the NDRC decided to organize the implementation of mobile Internet and the fourth-generation mobile communication (TD-LTE) industrialization special projects.
Various signs have indicated that the pace of domestic 4G license issuance is approaching. And just last month, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei made it clear that during the tour of the 2013 communications exhibition, 4G licenses will be officially issued before the end of this year. Although no specific time was revealed at the time, it was only 3 months from the end of the year. Judging from the current situation, this time basically coincides.
According to the above-mentioned insider, the work of issuing licenses has been carried out in an orderly manner. The possibility is very high in early November, and the specific time has not yet been finalized.
In addition to the license issuance time, the issuance program is also the focus of the industry. At present, the most credible license issuance plan is: the three major operators will all obtain TDD / FDD dual licenses. However, it has not been determined whether TDD licenses will be issued first, FDD licenses will be issued later, or dual licenses will be issued at the same time.
Last year, the national layer announced that all 190MHz frequency resources in the 2.6GHz (2500-2690MHz) frequency band will be used for TD-LTE network construction, and China Mobile's 4G test network will be launched accordingly. The above-mentioned person also pointed out that the main reason for the rumors that the license was not issued before 11 was that the spectrum could not be allocated. Now that the spectrum is allocated, it means that 4G licenses will be issued soon.
Judging from the rumored LTE spectrum allocation, China Unicom has obtained the 2.1 GHz (19551980MHz / 2145-2170MHz) frequency band, and Telecom has obtained the 1.8GHz (1755-1785MHZ / 1850-1880MHz) frequency band, which has shown that these two frequency bands are used for FDD Construction. However, 2.6GHz is not separately allocated to mobile, which at least shows that China Unicom and Telecom may obtain TDD licenses for hybrid networking, and this possibility is very large.
According to analysis, an operator is unable to undertake the network construction capacity required by the 190MHz frequency, which is too costly for China Mobile. In the 3G era, the 3G spectrum resources owned by China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom (microblogging) are 35MHz, 30MHz, and 30MHz, respectively, but they all add up to 95MHz. Obviously, other operators must share with China Mobile.
From the perspective of the three major operators, China Mobile started TD-LTE network construction in advance in order to change its obvious competitive disadvantages in the TD-SCDMA era; although China Telecom and China Unicom are extremely unwilling to follow up from the perspective of network investment return Progress in 4G network construction, but with China Mobile's rapid advancement of 4G network deployment, China Telecom was forced to start 4G network construction in advance, and a tens of billions of dollars in bidding will explain everything. Under the pressure of competitors, China Unicom will inevitably start 4G network construction.
Industry analysts pointed out that the transmission of competitive pressure will accelerate the 4G deployment process in China with certainty, thereby promoting the industry's fundamentals to be deterministic in the next 2 to 3 years.
New growth wave of smartphones
In addition, it is worth noting that 4G licensing will bring a new wave of smartphone growth. The intuitive reason is that the use of 4G network requires the replacement of mobile phones. According to IDC forecast data, China's smartphone shipments will reach 450 million units in 2014, an increase of 25%, of which more than 120 million smartphones will support 4G functions.
Compared with the terminals in the 3G era, the 4G era pays more attention to all aspects of the industrial chain, especially China Mobile, which dominates TD-LTE 4G. So far, I have not forgotten the lessons of TD-SCDMA, and the importance of 4G terminals is constantly increasing. After at least 4G licensing, users will see many well-known brand related mobile phones in the market, even including Apple's latest generation iPhone.
This is because the Apple iPhone 5s / iPhone 5c that supports China Mobile ’s TD-LTE and TD-SCDMA 4G / 3G networks has already obtained the corresponding network access license from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This means that Apple and China Mobile's 6-year "Tangled Love Run" has finally come to an end. As long as the 4G license is issued, the iPhone 5s / 5c that supports China Mobile's 4G / 3G network will be available for sale.
In addition, some media quoted sources as saying that China Mobile will purchase 40 million TD-LTE smartphones and 10 million TD-LTE data communication terminal equipment next year. Market participants predict that due to the rapid decline in the price of chipset solutions and the active promotion from China Mobile, it is expected that the total shipment of TD-LTE smartphones will reach 50 million to 100 million next year, more entry-level TD-LTE The smartphone will enter the market, and its average price will drop to the level of 1,000 yuan in the second half of next year.
The National Development and Reform Commission also mentioned in special support the enhancement of the R & D and industrialization of new application systems for mobile smart terminals and the development and industrialization of wearable devices for mobile Internet. Obviously, the new wave of smartphone growth will come even faster.
Who will go farthest in this wave? The outside world generally believes that the domestic mobile phone has ushered in the best opportunity for its rise.
In fact, the current mobile phone market pattern is turbulent. In the international market, traditional giants such as Nokia, Motorola, and Blackberry have given way or withdrawn, and the market structure has been re-divided by giants such as Apple and Samsung. In China, with the decline of Apple and Samsung, domestic manufacturers who had previously fought in the low-end market have now begun to actively deploy in the high-end market.
Once the 4G license is issued, the market knockout is likely to follow. Coolpad, ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo and other well-known domestic manufacturers will usher in a big opportunity to overtake in the corner.
The reason is that in the 3G era, domestic mobile phone manufacturers are subject to foreign manufacturers for technical reasons, but with the accumulation of technology of domestic mobile phone manufacturers and early investment in the development of 4G smart phones, in the subsequent 4G era, domestic mobile phone manufacturers 4G technology has already stood on the same starting line with foreign mobile phone manufacturers. Coupled with the price advantage of the products of domestic mobile phone manufacturers and the amount of ownership in the low-end smartphone market, there are many opportunities to impact the behavior of the mid-to-high-end market.
At present, the industry's first domestic mobile phone manufacturers to launch 4G terminals have occupied many seats, and ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad, etc. have also said that they have mass production capabilities.
In addition to the factors of 4G technology reserve, the good and in-depth cooperation between domestic mobile phone manufacturers and operators is also a huge opportunity and advantage for domestic mobile phone manufacturers in the 4G era. Only by ensuring product quality and excellent hardware upgrades can they be better through appropriate pricing strategies. Good to seize this opportunity to surpass.
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